![]() ![]() And because teams are targeting this particular fastball shape with zeal, the result is a population surge: There are an increasing number of pitchers, mainly those newer to the big leagues, whose four-seamers need to be located up high. That’s partly because of the emphasis on fastballs that have more carry than run, which work best up in the zone. Years after its proliferation, the high fastball is now more popular than ever. As such, the rate of fastballs up in the zone has continued to climb: In baseball, what’s exploitable will be exploited. Regular high cheese also served to counteract the so-called fly ball revolution an uppercut swing made golfing pitches at the bottom of the zone easier but left a hole at the top. But as pitch data became widely available, teams started to realize that throwing the fastball up would maximize swings and misses and minimize damage on contact. Back in the days of yore, a perfect fastball meant one located at the knees, down and away. Meanwhile, there are formerly innovative approaches that you don’t think twice about nowadays – they’ve become the norm. Knowledge is power, especially in baseball, and the modern pitcher is possibly the most educated athlete around. You’ve probably gained a much better understanding of how and why certain pitches do or don’t move. You’ve also learned that by using a two-seam grip, you can upgrade a regular slider into a “ sweeper,” which is shockingly effective for a pitch that’s so easy to learn. You’ve realized that you can throw more and more sliders without repercussions it might even be an ideal strategy. Even if he had never suffered his addictions, he would still be impossible to predict.If you’re a major league pitcher right now, there’s a good chance life is pretty smooth. Either way, Hamilton’s profile mirrors his career and life trajectory in its strangeness. That is probably what the Angels hoped for when they signed him. Since both his chase rate and his contact rate were career extremes, perhaps his plate discipline will return to the more-typical numbers of a few years ago. So what does it mean for Hamilton’s success as an Angel? I don’t know. And yet, their two seasons share in this unusual distinction. 285, was 32 points higher than Olivo’s on-base percentage in 2011. In 2012, Hamilton had a wRC+ of 140, making him 40 percent better than a league-average hitter. In 2011, Olivo had a wRC+ of 75, making him 25 percent worse than a league-average hitter. Hamilton may be the best hitter in baseball and Olivo may be the worst. Guerrero was a prodigy of see ball, hit ball, which manifested in a career contact rate of 67.4 percent on pitches outside the strike zone, which put him in the top-third in baseball most seasons. Guerrero had an 11-year run from 1998-2008 in which he never fell short of 129 wRC+, and he never struck out more than 14.0 percent of his plate appearances in a season. And while Guerrero never saw a pitch he did not like, his lack of discipline belied his incredible consistency as a hitter. Guerrero probably did not chase balls quite so frequently in his prime-FanGraphs has O-Swing% numbers that date back to 2002, and Guerrero was closer to 30 percent than 40 percent at that point-but his non-existent strike zone will always be in the first sentence of his legacy. Hamilton crossed that threshold for the first time in 2012 with a 45.4 percent O-Swing%, but he had not fallen too far short in 2011 at 41.0 percent. From 2007-2011, Guerrero swung at 44.0 percent or more of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone each season. The seed of that comparison is their penchant to chase pitches. On the field, I’ve always thought of him as the second-coming of Vladimir Guerrero, but while the two players share raw tools, plate discipline tendencies, and a presence that I can only think to describe as swashbuckling that always pulls my eyes to the television screen, Guerrero had a dependable greatness that Hamilton seems only to reach a few months at a time. Of the available free agents, Hamilton had the best offensive season in 2012, but given his history of substance abuse and his streakiness on the field, how does one predict what Hamilton will be in 2013, never mind in 2017? When Josh Hamilton signed a five-year, $123 million contract with the Los Angeles Angels about a month ago, I did not know what to make of it. ![]()
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